¶ … Monte Carlo simulation to get an estimate of the total production cost that can be expected for the company. The key to understanding this simulation is that there are two sets of information -- the probabilities and the randomly-generated number. The random number is between 1 and 100, so there is the same amount of numbers as there are probabilities. The probabilities need to be broken down on the spreadsheet to...

So for the materials costs, there is an 18% probability that the materials costs will be $33. Thus, any random number between 1 and 18 will reflect a materials cost of $33. There is a 23% probability that the materials cost will be $34. Thus, numbers 19-41 inclusive will mean that the materials cost will be $34 on the spreadsheet. The formula for materials costs would therefore be:
=IF ($C6